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It’s Hard Out There for a Dem in the House

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The big news from House Democrats in the last month is that literally all of them are retiring. And by “literally all” we mean that six have very recently announced their retirements at the end of this Congress: Bill Owens (2 terms), Jim Matheson (7 terms), Mike McIntyre (9 terms), Carolyn McCarthy (9 terms), Jim Moran (12 terms), and George Miller (20 terms).

You’ll notice that, with the exception of Owens, all the others here are forfeiting a great deal of seniority and all the assorted niceties that come with that. And sure, a few of them — Owens, Matheson, and McIntyre — are from relatively red districts that could have forced them out of their seats had they not opted for the retirement route. Their districts have always been fairly red, though, and these wouldn’t be their first fights.

This spate of retirements (and who knows how many more there are to come in the next, well, hours) goes to show that Democrats have completely given up on retaking the House in this election or any election in the near future. And that’s perfectly rational, because they’re not going to!

In 2012, Democrats won a handsome victory of all votes cast for House members, on the tails of a reelected Democrat president, and still only managed to pick up a handful of seats—nowhere near what they needed to regain the majority. In 2014, by comparison, Democrats are expected to suck. And Republicans have drawn the map in their favor.

For Democrats to regain a majority, they basically need a good state-level election in a Census year by which they can redraw the map to something a little more in their favor, as well as either a popular Democratic president or unpopular Republican president in office. So, 2020 at the earliest, but more likely ~2154, when we’ll all be either underwater or fighting each other with spear-tipped twigs over the last remaining troves of protein on a desolated hellscape.

But surely powerful figures in the minority can “get things done,” even little things, by working with the majority, right? Ha no. The most “action” that House Democrats have seen since they’ve been in the majority has been in helping to bail out John Boehner on things like debt ceiling hikes or funding agreements. There’s really no point to being even a veteran in the House minority at all anymore if there’s no chairmanship on the horizon. House Republicans will not bring up any bill of yours, because why would they? They’re trending more conservative, and House Democrats, at least rhetorically, are trending more liberal. Even if you’re a powerful member of the House minority, like Moran or Miller, the best you can do is sit quietly during a hearing as a ranking member while the clown chairman berates some mid-level bureaucrat about creeping communism.

If I were a veteran House Democrat in this environment, I’d retire in a hot second too, and become a lobbyist or work at a non-profit or become a lobbyist or maybe become a lobbyist. Did you know that lobbyists make lots of money? Who doesn’t love money?